🔍 Read the full analysis: SemiAnalysis On Why The 5X In AI Subscriptions Isn’t A Price on ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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TL;DR
SemiAnalysis compared usage limits across major AI subscriptions by measuring tokens available and pricing equivalent API usage. It estimates Claude’s mid-tier plans provide about five to six times the API-equivalent value of comparable ChatGPT plans, but says that gap can change as labs revise model prices and allowances. The report also estimates subscriptions use a much larger share of inference compute than of Anthropic revenue.
SemiAnalysis has measured usage limits across major AI subscriptions and estimates that Claude’s mid-tier plans provide roughly five to six times the API-equivalent value of comparable ChatGPT plans on an agentic coding workload. The report says the ratio reflects how much usage each subscription permits at providers’ API list prices, and that recent changes to model prices and plan limits can shift the comparison.
SemiAnalysis tested how subscription usage bars moved across token types, then estimated the API list-price cost of the usage permitted by each plan. In its central comparison, the $20 Claude Pro plan provides about $1,178 in API-equivalent usage, against about $211 for ChatGPT Plus. At $100, the estimated values are $5,725 for Claude Max 5x and $1,055 for ChatGPT Pro 100; at $200, $11,726 for Claude Max 20x and $2,084 for ChatGPT Pro 200. These are estimates based on the report’s workload and the plans’ measured limits, not cash refunds or guaranteed usage for every user.
The workload is heavily weighted toward cached input: SemiAnalysis describes it as roughly 96.6% cached input, with about 0.4% fresh input, 2.6% cache writes and 0.3% output. The report says the estimated value gap remains large even when counted in raw tokens, addressing the fact that the compared models have different API prices. At the frontier tier, the comparison is closer: on a $200 plan, the report estimates the OpenAI allowance is exhausted after about $2,897 of GPT-6 Astra usage, while Claude Fable 5.1 would use about half its plan limit after $2,485 of API-equivalent usage. The other half of the Claude limit remains available for other models.
The report also tracks recent changes at both companies. OpenAI cut allowances on its $200 plan by roughly half, according to SemiAnalysis. Existing subscribers keep their old limits until 29 October, while new purchases receive the lower allowances. OpenAI introduced a $500 tier that offers about 21% more Astra usage than the former $200 plan, but less API-equivalent value for Sol-class models, the report says. Anthropic reduced API prices for Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5; SemiAnalysis says Fable’s limits did not rise, while Opus allowances increased by about 20% on Max and 50% on Pro.
The 5x is a subsidy, not a price
SemiAnalysis metered the meters — every major AI subscription, token type by token type, converted to API list value. On the mid-tier models both labs call the daily driver, a Claude plan returns ~5–6× the API value of the matching ChatGPT plan. Real — and the least durable number in the report.
…and the plan is fully exhausted. One pool for every model.
…and the plan is only half used — Fable is capped at 50% of the limit, leaving the rest for Opus/Sonnet. That’s where the mid-tier gap compounds.
- $200 plan halved — Sol-class value down >50% (6.1 Sol cache price cut compounds it)
- Old limits kept until 29 October; new buyers cut immediately
- New $500 tier: only +21% Astra vs the old $200 — real draw is 300 TPS Ultrafast
- Ladder flattened: Pro 100/200/500 now identical per dollar; multipliers removed from pricing page
- In OpenAI’s favour: no 5-hour window on Pro plans — easier to use the full allowance
- Flat per-dollar value across all tiers, before and after
- New premium models placed at lower relative limits (Fable capped at 50%)
- Opus allowances raised ~20% (Max) / ~50% (Pro) with the 5.5 price cut — not enough to fully offset it
- Repeatedly walked back planned cuts earlier this year under pressure from OpenAI’s generosity
- Twelve months ago, OpenAI was the generous option. Positions swap.
Gross margin per plan, assuming 92% API gross margins. The subsidy lives almost entirely in Opus and Sonnet usage — Anthropic would already be near software-like subscription margins if everyone used only Fable. Subscriptions matter even more for OpenAI, where they’re a larger share of revenue.
Three identical subscriptions; one had ~20% lower limits. The provider (unnamed) confirmed an “extremely tiny” A/B test on limit balancing. Two lessons: limits can change silently, per account, at any time — and you won’t know without instrumentation. The usage bar is a percentage, not a contract.
If you’re choosing a plan this month for agentic coding on a mid-tier model, the report settles it: a Claude plan returns ~5–6× the API value of the matching ChatGPT plan. But a plan returning 58× its fee on a model served at a steeply negative margin for heavy users is a marketing budget with a usage meter. Value moves silently, gets A/B tested per account, and twelve months ago ran the other way. Use the subsidy while it exists — it’s genuinely large. Don’t build a cost model on it. Price workloads at API rates, keep a router between you and any one vendor, and benchmark open weights on your own hardware for steady volume. A deal you can’t verify isn’t a price. It’s weather.
Subscription Limits Shape AI Costs
The comparison matters because subscription limits determine how much heavy users can run through a service before hitting a cap, while API prices help estimate the cost of equivalent usage. For developers and businesses deciding between a monthly plan and direct API access, the report offers a way to compare allowances across providers. Its results are tied to a specific, cached-input-heavy coding workload, so they may not describe other patterns of use.
SemiAnalysis estimates subscriptions account for about 10% of Anthropic revenue but can consume more than 40% of its inference compute. On those rough estimates, subscription usage lowers blended revenue per megawatt by about $36 million. The report estimates that a fully used Opus 5.5 subscription would have a gross margin of about −369%, assuming 92% API gross margins; at 20% average utilization, it estimates about 6%. These are modelled scenarios, not reported financial results. They illustrate why generous allowances may be costly when subscribers use premium models heavily.
The analysis points to a trade-off for AI labs: attractive plans can draw users into a product, but high usage can consume substantial computing capacity. Changing API prices without raising subscription limits can also reduce the API-equivalent value of a plan, even when the monthly fee stays the same. For subscribers, that makes published caps and model-specific limits as relevant as the headline price.
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Recent Changes Alter the Comparison
SemiAnalysis’s comparison follows price and allowance changes at both providers. OpenAI reduced its $200 plan’s token allowances by roughly half, the report says, and removed “5x more usage” and “20x more usage” multipliers from its pricing page. The report estimates the change reduced Sol-class API-equivalent value by more than half because GPT-6.1 Sol’s cached-input price also fell. OpenAI’s new $500 tier adds an “Ultrafast” mode advertised at 300 tokens per second; SemiAnalysis says it is still testing that feature.
Anthropic also cut API prices: SemiAnalysis reports that Fable 5.1’s cache-read price fell 75% compared with Fable 5, while Opus 5.5’s input and output prices fell 20% and its cache-read price fell 60% compared with Opus 5. The report says Fable 5.1 launched without higher subscription limits. Opus allowances rose, but not enough to fully offset the lower API prices. It describes a similar effect for OpenAI’s Sol model: no corresponding limit increase when GPT-6.1 Sol launched, and an estimated 30% drop in API-equivalent value on the $200 plan.
Plan structure also affects practical use. SemiAnalysis says OpenAI’s Pro plans do not impose a five-hour usage window, which may let heavy users spend more of their monthly allowance in a short period. The report considers that an advantage for bursty workloads, though it says this does not erase the estimated value gap in its comparison.
Usage Depends on Real-World Patterns
The estimates depend on the tested workload, measured plan limits and API list prices at the time of the analysis. The source material does not provide enough detail to determine how representative the coding-agent token mix is of all subscribers, or how frequently users reach their plan limits. It also does not establish that every subscriber can realize the full estimated API-equivalent value.
SemiAnalysis says it is still testing OpenAI’s 300-token-per-second Ultrafast mode. The supplied material does not specify how the mode will affect practical throughput, access or the value of the new $500 plan. Actual margins also depend on utilization and serving costs; the report’s figures are estimates based on stated assumptions, not company disclosures.
Limits and Ultrafast Testing
The next relevant milestones are the 29 October end of the old limits for existing subscribers to OpenAI’s $200 plan and SemiAnalysis’s further testing of Ultrafast mode. Subscribers comparing plans will need to track future changes to both model prices and usage allowances: either can alter API-equivalent value even if the monthly subscription price does not move.
Key Questions
What does “five to six times the API-equivalent value” mean?
SemiAnalysis estimates the API list-price cost of the usage allowed by each plan for its tested workload. It puts Claude’s mid-tier plans at about five to six times the comparable ChatGPT plans on that measure. The estimate is workload-specific and does not mean subscribers receive that amount of money.
Which plans did the report compare?
Its central comparison includes ChatGPT Plus at $20, Pro 100 at $100 and Pro 200 at $200, alongside Claude Pro at $20, Max 5x at $100 and Max 20x at $200.
What changed for OpenAI’s $200 plan?
SemiAnalysis says OpenAI roughly halved token allowances per model tier. Existing subscribers keep their previous limits until 29 October; new purchases receive the lower limits immediately.
Why can an API price cut lower subscription value?
The report prices subscription usage at API list rates. If a model’s API price falls while its subscription allowance stays fixed, the API-equivalent dollar value of that allowance falls too.
Are the margin estimates actual company results?
No. SemiAnalysis presents estimates based on assumptions about subscriber utilization and API gross margins. The supplied material does not identify them as reported financial results from Anthropic or OpenAI.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
