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A Kiplinger report ranks presidents by average year-over-year growth in seasonally adjusted CPI during their time in office, using Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data from 1948 onward. Jimmy Carter ranks highest at 9.75%, while Barack Obama ranks among the lowest at 1.39%; the comparison describes inflation during each term and does not establish presidential responsibility.
A Kiplinger report ranks U.S. presidents by the average year-over-year change in consumer prices during their time in office, with Jimmy Carter highest at 9.75% and Barack Obama near the bottom at 1.39%. The figures describe inflation over each presidency; the report cautions that they do not show that a president caused the price increases or declines.
The ranking uses seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Kiplinger calculated the average of the year-over-year CPI growth for each month a president was in office, including partial months. The dataset permits those calculations beginning in 1948; Harry Truman’s term began earlier, but his ranking uses only the available years.
After Carter, the highest averages in the list are Gerald Ford at 8.13%, Richard Nixon at 5.66%, Joe Biden at 4.90% and Ronald Reagan at 4.66%. The report gives the average across the period from 1948 onward as 3.52%. At the lower end, Obama is listed at 1.39%, Dwight Eisenhower at 1.36% and John F. Kennedy at 1.15%. Donald Trump’s first term is listed at 1.90%; his second-term figure, at 2.98%, is preliminary because that term is ongoing.
Kiplinger says Biden’s four-year term was the only one among the five most recent presidencies in its comparison with average inflation above the stated 3.52% historical average, as discussed in recent inflation data. U.S. inflation reached a 9.1% annual rate in June 2022, the report says, citing the CPI peak during that period and the use of higher rates to dampen inflation. Those figures place the term in historical context but do not by themselves assign responsibility for the peak.
Why the Inflation Ranking Matters
Inflation is a household-level measure: increases in prices for food, housing, fuel and other expenses affect consumers whether or not they own investments. A comparison framed around CPI can therefore speak to an experience more broadly shared than stock-market performance. The report also notes that concern over living costs has featured in recent U.S. elections, making inflation a consequential political issue.
But a presidential ranking is not a scorecard of policy effectiveness. It records the price environment during each term, while attributing causes requires separate evidence. The distinction matters because voters may associate a president with the economy they experience, even when major drivers—including central-bank decisions and global disruptions—are outside direct presidential control.
The figures are averages across entire terms, so they can also conceal sharp changes within them. A relatively low term average does not mean prices fell; it means the rate at which prices rose averaged less than in higher-ranked terms. The CPI measures changes in consumer prices, not the absolute cost of living or each household’s personal spending pattern.
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How the CPI Comparisons Were Built
Kiplinger says it used seasonally adjusted CPI, which accounts for recurring seasonal influences, and averaged the year-over-year growth rate for every month of each presidency. The St. Louis Fed dataset cited in the report begins in 1947, but the year-over-year comparisons start in 1948. That limitation affects Truman’s entry, since he served from 1945 to 1953.
The report stresses that presidents can influence economic conditions, but they are not the only force shaping inflation. The Federal Reserve has more direct influence over inflation through monetary policy and generally operates independently of the White House. The report also points to the post-COVID global recovery, supply-chain disruption and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as factors that contributed to price pressures in recent years.
Policy effects may arrive with a lag, meaning some consequences of decisions can show up after a president leaves office. Kiplinger identifies Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan as a possible contributor to inflation, while also describing reopening demand, supply constraints, labor shortages and energy and food price shocks. That account is the report’s interpretation of contributing factors, not proof that any one policy or event explains the full CPI movement.
“Presidents have some effect on U.S. inflation — but they’re hardly the only determinant.”
— Kiplinger
What Term Averages Cannot Show
The ranking establishes average CPI growth during the listed terms, but it does not isolate the effect of presidential decisions from other economic forces. Kiplinger’s discussion names several possible contributors to recent inflation, yet the material does not quantify how much each policy or shock added to consumer prices. The figures should not be treated as a causal ranking of presidents.
Trump’s second-term average is marked as current through the report’s stated data date, October 24, 2026, rather than a completed-term result. The supplied material does not provide a final figure for his presidency, which remains underway. The ranking also does not measure how price changes differed among regions, income groups or individual household budgets.
How the Ongoing Term May Change
Trump’s second-term average can change as additional monthly CPI readings become available, so its current 2.98% figure is provisional and should not be compared with completed terms as though it were final. Future updates to the ranking would depend on the CPI observations included and the date through which the calculation is made.
Readers following the issue should distinguish monthly inflation data from the report’s term-wide average and look for any later revision that states its data cutoff and method. The ranking itself does not forecast future prices or establish what inflation policy will produce; the next relevant development is the release of new CPI data and any updated calculation by Kiplinger.
Key Questions
Which president had the highest average inflation in the report?
Jimmy Carter ranked highest, with average year-over-year CPI growth of 9.75% during his term, according to Kiplinger’s calculation.
Which presidents had the lowest averages?
The lowest figures listed are for John F. Kennedy at 1.15%, Dwight D. Eisenhower at 1.36% and Barack Obama at 1.39%. These are averages of inflation rates during their terms, not measures of falling prices.
Does the ranking prove presidents caused inflation?
No. It compares CPI growth during presidential terms but does not isolate presidential decisions from Federal Reserve policy, global events, supply disruptions or other factors. The report explicitly cautions that a high or low place on the list does not mean the president caused the result.
How was average inflation calculated?
Kiplinger averaged the monthly year-over-year growth in seasonally adjusted CPI for each month a president was in office, including partial months. The calculations use Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data, with year-over-year figures available from 1948.
Is the figure for Donald Trump’s second term final?
No. The report lists 2.98% for his second term as of October 24, 2026, while the term is still underway. The average may change as more monthly CPI data are included.
Source: kiplinger.com
